Registered before they run.
Published either way.
An ongoing set of experiments measuring how useful language models actually are when one person tries to start a business with them. The models helped write this sentence.
Can they find genuinely new ideas? Predict what will work? Know when they're wrong?
1 of 4 predictions sealed · experiment 01Check the hashes
The question behind all of them
What are language models actually good for when you're building alone?
I'm a software engineer finding out how far I get with current language models doing the research, the strategy and the second-guessing. The team is me and a few models. Only one of us needs to sleep, and it is the one paying for the others.
The experiments
What proportion of business ideas generated by language models already have a shipping product in market?
02The Sealed EnvelopeStatus: Running — Collecting data now.How well do language models predict the outcome of experiments about themselves?
Can an AI agent decide, on its own, to pay for something?
What happens in thirty days where the model makes every decision and I only execute?
Where do language models refuse, hedge, or quietly fail on ordinary founder work?
Can prompting be steered toward ideas that are measurably less occupied?
How to catch me out
Before an experiment starts, each model's prediction is locked in public. After the results are known, the original is released in full, and anyone can confirm it did not change. The point is not trusting the models. It is not having to trust me.
Anyone can claim they predicted a result after seeing it. So before an experiment collects a single data point, the models write down what they expect to happen, and those predictions are hashed with SHA-256. The hashes are published here and submitted to the Internet Archive before collection starts — so the timestamp is held by someone other than me.
When the results go up, run shasum -a 256 against the released predictions — sha256sum on
Linux, certutil -hashfile on Windows — and compare with the archived page.
If the numbers match, the predictions are the ones that were sealed. If they do not, I changed them, and you should stop reading.